进口鸡肉传带禽伤寒沙门氏菌的定量风险评估
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“十三五”国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFD0501101)


Quantitative Risk Assessment of Salmonella gallinarum Transmitted by Imported Chicken
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    摘要:

    为分析进口鸡肉携带禽伤寒沙门氏菌(salmonella gallinarum)的风险水平,以及不同风险因子的影响大小,利用定量评估方法,通过场景分析,确定了影响鸡肉传带禽伤寒沙门氏菌风险的14个因子,依此构建风险评估数学模型,并参照2017年巴西禽伤寒沙门氏菌流行数据,对进口鸡肉传带禽伤寒沙门氏菌风险进行了定量评估。结果显示:鸡肉传带禽伤寒沙门氏菌的风险主要取决于鸡群病流行率及鸡群数量,其他因素影响很小;当进口鸡肉来源鸡群禽伤寒沙门氏菌流行率维持在0.05的水平时,其传带疫病的风险概率在0.1%左右。鉴于该疫病在世界各地多发,为防控禽伤寒沙门氏菌传入,应采取严格措施避免输华鸡肉源自感染鸡群。

    Abstract:

    In order to analyze the risk level of Salmonella gallinarum transmitted by imported chicken and the impact of different risk factors,14 relevant factors were determined through scenario analysis and the quantitative assessment method,based on which,a mathematical model for risk assessment was established to quantitatively assess the potential risk referring to the prevalence data of Salmonella gallinarum in Brazil in 2017. The results showed that the risk mainly depended on the prevalence rate in farms and the number of farms rather than other factors. If the herd prevalence rate of Salmonella gallinarum transmitted by imported chicken remained at the level of 0.05,the risk probability of transmission of disease would be about 0.1%. Considering frequent occurrence of the disease all around the world,strict measures should be taken to prevent any introduction of Salmonella gallinarum transmitted by imported chicken into China.

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李建军,高梦昭,邓柯,李艺超,郭瀚民,方海萍,赵明刚.进口鸡肉传带禽伤寒沙门氏菌的定量风险评估[J].《中国动物检疫》编辑部,2021,38(1):30-34.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-12-30
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