上海市沪淮批发市场从某省引进感染H7N9流感病毒活鸡的定量风险分析
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S851.3

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上海活禽市场交易网络与禽流感病毒阳性率的相关性研究(沪农青字〔2016〕第2-4号)


Quantitative Risk Analysis on the Entry of Chickens Carrying H7N9 Virus into Huhuai Wholesale Market of Shanghai City
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    摘要:

    2013年3月底,上海市报道了全国首例人H7N9流感确诊病例。随后全国其他地区又有多例病例被确诊,而且多被证实有活禽接触史。根据调查,上海市市场售卖的活禽大多来自外省(市),其中沪淮批发市场的活禽全部来源于某省大型养殖公司,主要是黄羽肉鸡。本研究利用定量风险分析的方法,评估沪淮批发市场在2015年12月从该省引进至少1羽感染H7N9流感病毒活鸡的可能性。根据情景树,建立了定量风险分析模型,并利用@RISK软件,模拟计算出2015年12月至少有1羽活鸡携带H7N9流感病毒进入批发市场混群的概率为11.9%(95%CI:6.22%~19.82%)。该结果的不确定性为中等。模型敏感性结果显示,检测技术敏感性、H7N9流感个体流行率和H7N9流感场群流行率是重要参数。评估结果提示,养殖场应提高生物安全防护意识,有效降低养殖场中病原存在的概率。建议相关部门进一步优化检测技术,提升产地检疫效能,通过多种方式减少活禽交易量,推广规范化交易模式,提高交易各环节的生物安全水平。

    Abstract:

    The first confirmed case of human infection with influenza A(H7N9)virus was reported in Shanghai city in late March 2013. Subsequently,many other infection cases were also confirmed in other areas of China,and contact history with live poultry in majority of the confirmed cases was found. According to investigation,the live poultry sold in markets mostly came from other provinces and cities outside Shanghai city. Among the live bird markets,poultry(mainly yellow broiler)in the Huhuai wholesale market were all derived from a large-scale poultry farm of one province. Using quantitative risk analysis,the possibility of introducing at least one yellow broiler carrying H7N9 influenza virus into the market from that province in December 2015 was evaluated. According to the scenario tree,a quantitative risk analysis model was established. By @RISK analog calculation,the rate of the incident was 11.9%(95%CI :6.22%~19.82%),and the uncertainty level was medium. Results of sensitivity analysis of the model indicated three important parameters of the sensitivity of the detection technology,individual and herd prevalence of H7N9. The assessment results indicated poultry farmers should raise awareness of bio-safety containment and effectively reduce the existence of pathogens in poultry farms. In addition,some suggestions were also given:further optimizing detection techniques to improve efficiency in inspection and quarantine at the place of origin,using multiple ways to reduce live poultry trading volume,popularizing the standardized trading model,and promoting the bio-safety level in each link of the live poultry trade networks.

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吴秀娟,李印,杨显超,李凯航,周锦萍.上海市沪淮批发市场从某省引进感染H7N9流感病毒活鸡的定量风险分析[J].《中国动物检疫》编辑部,2017,34(3):5-8.

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