西安市牛羊布鲁氏菌病传播风险因素病例对照研究
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A Case-control Study on Risk Factors of Spreading Brucellosis in Cattle and Sheep in Xi'an City
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    摘要:

    为了解西安市牛羊布鲁氏菌病传播风险因素,以2019—2020年布鲁氏菌病监测数据为基础,采用病例对照研究方法,对西安市12个区县360个养殖场点开展问卷调查,然后对引种、饲养管理、消毒等17个风险因素进行单因素分析,并将与养殖场阳性有关联的因素进行卡方检验及多因素二元Logistic回归,构建回归模型,计算模型的预测概率,建立ROC曲线。结果显示:共回收有效问卷322份,涉及285个阴性场点、37个阳性场点;西安市牛羊布鲁氏菌病传播的主要风险因素为“曾引进动物”(OR=13.8,95%CL:3.8~50.1)、“混群前未隔离观察”(OR=16.7,95%CL:5.1~54.4)、“车辆入场不消毒”(OR=4.6,95%CL:1.3~15.9);回归模型的拟合度较好,ROC曲线下面积为0.92(95%CI:0.87~0.97),模型预测性尚好。结果提示,牛羊养殖应坚持自繁自养,确需引进动物时,要规范引种,混群前隔离饲养,同时养殖场做好运输车辆消毒,相关部门要加强动物流通环节的检疫与监管,以降低布鲁氏菌病传播风险。

    Abstract:

    In order to identify all risk factors of spreading brucellosis in cattle and sheep in Xi'an City,a questionnaire investigation was conducted for 360 premises in 11 districts(counties)in the city based on the surveillance data of brucellosis during 2019 to 2020 by the method of case-control study,17 risk factors including introduction,feeding management and disinfection were individually analyzed,Chi-square test and multivariate binary logistic regression were performed on the factors associated with positive farms,then a regression model was constructed,and the prediction probability of the model was calculated to establish ROC curve. The results showed that 322 valid questionnaires were collected,covering 285 negative premises and 37 positive premises;the major risk factors of spreading brucellosis in the city included“previously introduced animals”(OR=13.8,95%CL:3.8-50.1),“mixing into other herds without quarantine and observation”(OR=16.7,95%CL:5.1-54.4)and“vehicles entering farms without disinfection”(OR=4.6,95%CL:1.3-15.9);the degree of fitting of the model was fine,the area below ROC curve was 0.92(95%CI:0.87-0.97),and the prediction of the model was good. For the purpose of reducing any risk of spreading brucellosis,it was suggested that cattle and sheep should be self-supportive,for those to be introduced,any introduction should be standardized and quarantined prior to mixing into other herds,meanwhile,all transport vehicles should be thoroughly disinfected in farms,quarantine and supervision during animal movements should be strengthened by relevant authorities.

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董钊,吴萌萌,张栋梁,石龙飞,李罡,孙彩虹.西安市牛羊布鲁氏菌病传播风险因素病例对照研究[J].《中国动物检疫》编辑部,2021,38(9):1-4.

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