净化场省内引进成年羊传入布鲁氏菌病的定量风险分析
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S851.3

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中国兽医现场流行病学培训项目(CFETPV)


Quantitative Risk Analysis on Brucellosis Carried by Adult Sheep Introduced by Purified Farms within Local Province
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    摘要:

    为评估布鲁氏菌病净化场省内引进成年羊传入布鲁氏菌病的概率,绘制路径“情景树”,建立了引进动物无实验室检测(无检测)以及进行1次或2次实验室检测(单检测或双检测)的风险评估模型,通过@Risk软件进行模拟运算,获得模型的相关参数分布取值。研究发现,经过“双检测”“单检测”“无检测”3种情景模型引进方式,引进1只成年羊传入布鲁氏菌病的可能性分别为0.048%(95%Cl:0.024%~0.083%)、0.306%(95%Cl:0.196%~0.447%)、1.975%(95%Cl:1.454%~2.587%)。对比发现,“无检测”引进成年羊的平均风险是“单检测”的6.5倍,是“双检测”的41.1倍。通过敏感性分析发现:诊断试验敏感性是主要的保护性因素,其相关系数为-0.89;群流行率和个体流行率是主要风险因素,其相关系数分别为0.40和0.17。研究表明,降低群流行率、个体流行率,倡导开展混群前检测,能够有效降低布鲁氏菌病的传入风险。

    Abstract:

    In order to evaluate the risk probability of brucellosis carried by adult sheep introduced by purified farms within local province,a“scenario tree”was drawn to establish a risk assessment model for introduced animals without laboratory test or with one or two laboratory tests,the distribution values of relevant parameters of the model were obtained by simulation calculation with @Risk software. It was found that the probability of introducing brucellosis via an adult sheep was 0.048%(95%Cl:0.024%-0.083%)、0.306%(95%Cl:0.196%-0.447%)and 1.975%(95%Cl:1.454%-2.587%),respectively through the scenario models including“double detection”,“single detection”and“no detection”. As it was compared that the average risk of introducing adult sheep under“no detection”model was 6.5 times larger than that under“single detection”and 41.1 times than that of“double detection”. It was found that,through sensitivity analysis,the main protective factor included the sensitivity of diagnostic test,with correlation coefficient of -0.89;and main risk factor included the group and individual prevalence,with the correlation coefficients of 0.40 and 0.17 respectively. In conclusion,the entry risk of brucellosis could be effectively reduced through reducing the group and individual prevalence and advocating detection before entering into population.

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陈峰,张栋,董钊,曹振山,朱琳,楚遵锋,王幼明,兰邹然.净化场省内引进成年羊传入布鲁氏菌病的定量风险分析[J].《中国动物检疫》编辑部,2022,39(5):1-6.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-05-07
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